Notebook Shipments Expected To Rise Significantly In 2H12

Digitimes’ Aaron Lee and Joseph Tsai say that notebook shipments, benefiting from the recovery of Thailand flood-related hard drive shortages and launch of Windows 8 in the third quarter, are expected to rise significantly in the second half of 2012, with shipments proportionally in the first and second halves to projected to reach about 45% and 55% respectively, with the spread possibly as great as 40% vs. 60%.

Lee and Tsai note that hard drive shortages and weak US and Europe economies are the two major negative factors causing weak performance in the first half, especially the first quarter, according to Digitimes senior analyst Joanne Chien, who says that Taiwan ODMs’ notebook shipments in the first quarter will drop 9.4% on quarter and 3.2% year-over-year.

A growth driver for the notebook industry in the second half is expected to be Intel’s next-generation 22nm Ivy Bridge CPU platform, which will feature Intel’s 3D Tri-Gate technology with power consumption anticipatd to be up to 50% lower than with existing 32nm Sandy Bridge processors. Apple is also expected to switch to Ivy Bridge silicon with a complete overhaul of its MacBook Pro and MacBook Air families in 2012.

Lee and Tsai say market watchers are pessimistic about Intel acheiving its goal of having Ultrabooks account for 40% of total notebook shipments in 2012, but expect the devices will still attract consumer interest, with mass shipping expected to start in the second quarter. Another boost is anticipated with the release of Windows 8 in the third quarter, and the reporters observe that if shipments of Android 4.0 and Windows 8 tablet PCs are counted, notebook shipments in 2012 might still be able to achieve double-digit growth.

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