Ultrabook Onslaught Building For CES and CBIT

The Great White Hope of the PC sector for 2012 is “Ultrabooks,” which are essentially and Intel-designed template for PC knockoffs of Apple’s spectacularly successful MacBook Air, and as ZNet’s Larry Dignan, notes, a week from now you may never want to hear the word ultrabook again what with the annual Consumer Electronics Show sure to be dominated by non-stop ultrabook chatter and forthcoming CeBit also likely to be ultrabook heavy.

Three PC-oriented pundits weigh in on the coming Ultrabook onslaught.

Ultrabooks: Things That Could Make Or Break The Category

ZNet’s Larry Dignan says what’s unclear is how much market traction ultrabooks will grab and how quickly, noting that, IHS iSuppli estimates that 43 percent of notebook shipments will be ultrabooks in 2015, and that in 2012, about 13 percent of notebooks will be ultrabooks. Dignan thinks that 40% ultrabook penetration for C2012 might be too ambitious, and that several factors will need to align in order for ultrabooks to be a commercial success.

They include:

1) Price, which Dignan suggests may be the single most important metric for ultrabooks, and that it may need to be as low as $500 in order to compete with tablets.

2)Windows 8 needs to be huge, since Dignan thinks it will be the big driver for ultrabook sales [I agree, CM], a new OS designed to meld PC and tablet experiences, and observes that ultrabooks with touchscreens and hybrids could appeal to the masses.

3) The MacBook – Apple created the category, and ultrabook success will depend largely on Apple prices, Dignan noting that assuming they can handle an 11-inch screen many folks will go MacBook Air at $999 over an ultrabook at $800, and the challenge for ultrabooks is going where Apple has been – not where it’s going. Apple could cut prices, cook up new designs and offer more screen variety to fend off ultrabooks.

CES 2012: Will the Ultrabook be as Ultra as Promised?

Computerworld’s Barbara Krasnoff says that in speculation about the upcoming CES trade show the word everyone is tossing around as this year’s product to watch is the Ultrabook, and notes that up to 50 of these new notebooks are expected to be announced at CES, leading her to suspect that many will not be strictly following the Intel Ultrabook rules.

Krasnoff observes that while the idea of a slim, lightweight, comfortable-to-type-on full-featured notebook with a very long battery life is extremely attractive, the current crop of initial Ultrabooks aren’t yet quite the wonders that we’d like, partly because they are still using the Intel Sandy Bridge processors, with more efficient Ivy Bridge chips due later this year.

Krasnoff says she’s curious as to how well the Ultrabooks will do if the pricing remains, as indications seem to be, in the $1,000 range.

What Ultrabooks Could Do To The Tablet Craze

Forbes Contributor Michael Humphrey notes that an Ultrabook must weigh no more than 3.1 lbs, be no more than 0.71 inches thick, and provide five-plus hours of battery life, boast flash-based storage, and incorporate Intel’s Rapid Start Technology for speedy boot times.

Humphrey observes that based on personal use that he dwescribes in the article, it’s occurred to him that the only reason to use a tablet instead of an Ultrabook is that tablets are better for reading. But the Air is more comfortable for viewing, with its keyboard base propping the screen up nicely. It’s also fast, the screen is beautiful, and in terms of mobility, the weight difference is negligible, especially if you factor in an iPad cover. Plus, the Air is a fully functional computer for the rest of one’s needs.

Of course the same would apply to a MacBook Air as well as a PC Ultrabook, and perhaps even more so

Humphrey oserves, as have many others, that tablets make sense as an entertainment and mobility gadget, and can work for some kinds of business use, but not those that need intensive written input, while ultrabooks [and MacBook Airs – CM] offer a powerful alternative all the functionality of your old laptop with nearly the mobility of your tablet, so “why not just one device?”

Why indeed?

Ultrabooks Ascendent?

At the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) in San Francisco last year, Mooly Eden, vice president and general manager of Intel’s PC Client Group, observed that the personal computing experience is undergoing another fundamental transformation with his company’s creation of Ultrabook, claimed to be a new category of mobile devices. Apple fans will take issue with that claim, given that the new-generation MacBook Air has been covering pretty much the same market territory as Intel’s Ultrabooks for nearly a year now, but the proven success of the Air probably bodes well for the Ultrabooks, provided costs can be kept down.

To define the Ultrabook category, Intel says it began by vetting out what people want most out of their personal computing devices, both from an emotional and a rational perspective. Ultrabooks are designed to give users the traditional power to create and produce of a full desktop operating system repackaged in a sleek, light, secure and elegant device that offers an immersive and responsive experience without compromising performance, and delivered at mainstream price points.

The first Ultrabook devices are based on Sandy Bridge Intel Core processors, and come in a range of form factors from various manufacturers.

The Sandy Bridge Intel Core processor family introduced last winter delivers an enhanced visual computing experience as a result of improved performance and better integrated processor graphics.

Mr. Eden shared the stage with Microsoft, which was showing off its forthcoming Windows 8 operating system preview working and running several applications on Intel-based Ultrabook devices. They highlighted the broad collaboration between the two companies and pointed to the future opportunities that Windows 8 will present across multiple compute devices such as tablets, hybrids and new laptop form factors like Ultrabook.

Eden also turned the spotlight on Thunderbolt, Intel’s new, high-speed, dual-protocol I/O technology that was initially rolled out by Apple with its upgraded MacBook Pro line last February, and added to the MacBook Air with its latest update in July. Thunderbolt provides data transfer rates between host devices and external devices of up to 10Gbps via a single single, thin cable connection. At IDF Eden gave attendees an early look at a prototype with Thunderbolt technology running the Microsoft Windows 7 operating system.

Powering the Next Wave of Ultrabook Devices in 2012

Eden also gave the IDF audience a preview of the processor that will power 2012 Ultrabook devices — the third-generation Intel Core processor (codenamed “Ivy Bridge”). Expected to be available in systems in the first half of 2012, Ivy Bridge silicon will deliver greater performance and energy efficiency. Intel has also redesigned the processor graphics to provide better performance and energy efficiency.

Eden previewed six pre-production Ultrabook designs based on third generation Intel Core processors and said he expects a large selection of devices to be available worldwide in 2012.

Security features built into Ultrabook devices include processor-based Intel Identity Protection technology and Intel Anti-Theft. Building on the capabilities offered today, next-generation Ultrabooks, notebooks and desktop computers can benefit from the collaborative effort between Intel and McAfee to jointly develop a McAfee anti-theft service for Ultrabooks. Available in 2012, the McAfee solution will be the first to take advantage of unique, Intel chip-level technologies and will provide device and data protection for consumers such as device lock, data wipe and location tracking.

Challenging the entire personal computing industry to work together to deliver the thinnest, lightest and most complete computing devices, Eden touched on various component technologies including panels, keyboards, battery technology and chassis that require further innovation to meet the Ultrabook vision. At the innovation forefront, Intel demonstrated a new laptop power savings technology that limits screen refreshes when the Ultrabook screen is static, thereby saving energy. LG Display, a leading panel vendor, will be one of the first to bring a power-optimized panel self-refresh display to market for Ultrabooks using its Shuriken Technology that features edge to edge design, smaller footprint and low power.

The Vision of Ultrabook Realized?

The Ultrabook vision is a multi-year, industry-wide effort that will roll out in three phases. Eden said phase one is in process and will be realized this holiday season with the introduction of the first Ultrabook devices, while phase two will begin with the launch of Intel’s third generation Core processors in the first half of 2012. In 2013, Intel will introduce its next-generation, 22nm “Haswell” processor, signaling phase three of the transition to Ultrabook devices. Eden demonstrated “Haswell” running multiple applications at one time on stage at IDF. Devices powered by the future chip will ultimately transform the personal computing experience as a result of the new levels of power savings in the processor that will help provide more than 10 days of connected standby battery life, as well as give people the most complete and satisfying computing experience.

More information about the products and technologies demonstrated in the keynote is available at
http://www.intel.com/newsroom/idf