PC Shipments Expected to Sttrengthen In Second Half of 2012, Long-Term PC Growth Capped Within Single Digits – IDC
Worldwide PC shipment growth for 2011 ended on a slightly positive note, growing to 1.8% on the year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. While the first half of 2012 is expected to see only modest shipment growth, launch of Windows 8 and the excitement generated by ultrabooks and other ultra-thin notebooks should drive second half sales in a much stronger way, IDC projects.
For much of 2011, vendors struggled to maintain consumer interest in a market beset by a tenuous economic recovery and disrupted by emerging computing devices. Lack of interest was evidenced by a lackluster Christmas season, and mature markets like the United States and Western Europe, in particular, had a rough year, with PC shipments in 2011 shrinking a substantial 9% compared to 2010.
Looking ahead, IDC expects the PC market to still enjoy pockets of growth, particularly in emerging markets, with overall PC growth to be a modest 5.0% for the 2012, with most of that occurring in the latter half of the year.”Many consumers are holding off making PC purchases at the moment because tablet devices like Apple’s iPad are proving to be a powerful distraction,” Bob O’Donnell, vice president of Clients and Displays at IDC, says in a release. “However, end user surveys tell us that few people consider media tablets as replacements for their PCs, so later this year when there is a new Microsoft operating system, available in sleek new PC form factors, we believe consumer interest in PCs will begin to rebound.”
Although emerging markets have continued to show good uptake, IDC has slightly reduced its outlook in some regions. The 2012 forecast for China has been lowered to 9%, the first time a year of single-digit growth has been forecast for there in recent memory. Part of the downward adjustment for emerging markets id due to the shortage of disk drives, which greatly impacts white box PC manufacturers who play a prevalent role in emerging markets. Secondly, the prospect of slowing exports will also likely affect PC spending as both consumers and SMBs in developing countries scale back.
“2012 and 2013 will bring significant challenges for Microsoft and the PC community,” says Worldwide PC Tracker senior research analyst Jay Chou. “The Wintel platform must evolve to accommodate user expectations of ubiquitous computing on a multitude of devices and physical settings. Windows 8 and ultrabooks are a definitive step in the right direction to recapturing the relevance of the PC, but its promise of meshing a tablet experience in a PC body will likely entail a period of trial and error, thus the market will likely see modest growth in the near term.”
A graphic illustrating desktop and portable PC shipments for both mature and emerging markets during the 2011-2016 forecast period is available at IDC.com. Instructions on how to embed this graphic into online news articles and social media can be found by viewing this press release on IDC.com.
IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.
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