Apple’s Share Of Ultrabook Market To Diminish Analyst Predicts

Computerworld’s Gregg Keizer reports that
Although Apple will sell an increasing number of MacBook Airs over the next two years, its share of the light-and-thin notebook market will fall as computer makers crank out Windows-powered competitors, according to analyst Brian Marshall of International Strategy & Investment Group (ISI) in a Dec. 13 note to clients.

Marshall estimates that Apple will sell 6.3 million MacBook Air notebooks in 2011, 8.4 million in 2012 and 10.4 million in 2013, and that MacBook Air sales accounted for 49% of all Apple’s notebook sales in the quarter that ended Sept. 30, 2011.

However, he predicts that even as Apple sells more MacBook Airs, its share of the total “ultrabook” market will decline.

Marshall thinks Apple’s 2012 ultrabook (notebooks that weigh less than three pounds, use SSD storage, have a full-sized keyboard and at least an 11-in. screen) share will diminish to approximately 46% in 2012, and to 32% in 2013, with more Windows PC makers jumping on the ultrabook bandwagon.

Marshall projects that no Windows PC maker will beat Apple, but Hewlett-Packard and Lenovo will come closest, with Microsoft’s release of Windows 8 next year to help boost non-Apple ultrabook sales, noting in his research note that “Success hinges on reaching mainstream notebook PC prices close to $700, or 30% below the base 11.6-in. MacBook Air model at $999.”

Marshall anticipates some 30 to 50 ultrabook announcements at the Jan. 10-13 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.

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