Is The Tablet Computer A New PC Or Post-PC? – Either Way, Apple Has The Whip Hand
Asymco’s Horace Dediu says that Steve Ballmer has stated and Andy Lees confirmed that Microsoft views the iPad and other tablets as just PCs. From a market measurement point of view market research firm Canalys agrees, while its competitors IDC and Gartner dont, calling the new devices media tablets.
Dediu observes that before deciding whether tablets belong with PCs in market metrics, it’s worth taking a look at what the data shows, which he proceeds to do with several illustrative charts, and notes that even excluding iPads, Apple is very close to being 5th largest global PC vendor, with its global market share likely above 5%, while including iPads, Apple would be in second place.
As for platform year-iver-year growth, the metrics are:
• Windows: +1.3%
• OS X: +26%
• iOS: +170%
• (Android growth can’t yet be measured comparitively since Android tablets haven’t been on the market for more than a year yet).
Looking at it anohter way, in Q2 2011 one million more Windows PCs were sold than in Q2 2010, compared with 903 thousand more OS X PCs and 5.5 million more iPads, Excluding tablets, nearly 50 percent of global PC growth was due to the Mac. If you include the iPad, Apple was responsible for approximately 70% of PC market growth in the in Q2.
Dediu predicts that If Windows remains marginal on tablets, the PC market will likely tip away from Microsoft in two years (depending on how quickly Apple can build iPads.), and says Microsoft’s real challenge will be whether they can keep their business model (selling OS licenses to hardware vendors) as PCs become more device-like, with not only iOS setting the benchmark for performance but Android potentially ready to gobble up share if the market turns slightly more modular.
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