First Quarter PC Sales: Windows Down 2%, Mac (Including iPad) up 250+%

Writing in his Asymco blog, Horace Dediu cites Charles Arthur of The Guardian’s concisely understated observation that PC sales “may have passed their peak,” Gartner’s Mikako Kitagawa in a media release last week noting a third consecutive quarter of mobile PC shipment declines in the US, and IDC suggesting that part of the PC sales downturn might have to do with something called media tablets, although with the qualification that “other factors” may have played equally significant roles.

Didiu contends that there are several problems with both IDC’s and Gartner’s market analyses, noting that it’s difficult to discern causality from their data with its separation by vendor but not by operating system and exclusion of devices purchased to do the same jobs as PCs.

Consequently Didiu has endeavoured to construct his own analysis, using Gartner’s public statements on the overall market and then layering actual Mac and iPad units sold, plus his estimates for just-ended 2011 Q1 to complete the picture, thereby producing a graph chart showing the market growth rates of the various platforms isolated from each other. The result is a graph that one is likely obliged to scroll over unless they have a very high res. or portrait orientation monitor in order to include the iPad’s near vertical growth curve.

Didiu’s analysis shows that the Mac is not doing shabbily either, nicely bucking the Windows PC negative growth trend. However, the main takeaway is that the near tripling of unit iPad unit sales is symptomatic of fundamental change that cannot be ignored, as much as some analysts appear to be attempting to ignore it, the bottom line being that Windows PC computer units are down 2.0% while OSX-based computer units (including the iOS-based iPad, but not the iPhone and iPod touch) are up 272 percent, and the weight of evidence beginning to be conclusive that the iPad is the new PC.

For the full analysis, and the fascinating “giraffe” graph, see:
http://bit.ly/hjbUfX